Dr. Greenes’ lectures on decision science discuss the use of decision tree in decision support system. The decision tree about surgery choice and medication choice can help to take decision on which one is better option. But both of the options have got almost same probability. One way that makes the system more acceptable, but I doubt its effectiveness.
He also discussed about Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Markov model consider each states of the patient as markov state and then consider assumptions of transitions between the states. I think it is a very effective tool in decision support system.
The Bayesian concept comes again when it needs to take decision. The threshold determines the sensitivity and specificity of the tests. We also became familiar with some new concepts like:
-Odds are ratio of 2 probabilities.
-Posterior odd= prior odd x likelihood ratio
Posted by Gazi
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